Exploring Earthquake-Induced Liquefaction Hazard Linked to Climate Change Effects in Sandy Soils

Climate change is increasingly affecting the stability of geo-structures by altering groundwater regimes, intensifying drought-rainfall cycles, and causing sea-level rise (SLR). Seismic liquefaction due to SLR, among others, poses a critical issue for low-lying coastal areas, as evidenced by the analysis of several case histories which report the expected impact of liquefaction in terms of in situ potential damages. These evidences can be explained considering the increased saturation of soils due SLR, as it leads to higher development of excess pore water pressure (PWP) during seismic events. In this context, it is relevant to predict in a reliable way the increase of excess PWP during seismic events taking into account future climate scenarios. In the present study, a series of 16 high-quality undrained cyclic simple shear tests, performed on Ticino clean sand prepared at relative densities ranging from 43 to 86% under a vertical effective stress of 100 kPa, were interpreted to calibrate the energy-based PWP model proposed by Berrill and Davis (BD) providing empirical correlations for the model’s parameters. The performance of the BD model, implemented in DEEPSOIL 1D nonlinear response analysis software, was ascertained through numerical simulations of a centrifuge test, revealing the good agreement between experimental PWP measurements and numerical predictions.