Disruption Anticipation in Tokamak Reactors: a Two-Factors Fuzzy Time Series Approach

Disruption in a Tokamak reactor is a sudden loss of confinement that can cause a damage of the machine walls and support structures. In this paper, we propose the use of the Fuzzy-Time Series (FTS) approach for anticipating the onset of disruption in Tokamaks. Two-Factors Fuzzy Time Series models will be shown to be advantageously used for making prediction of the disruption's onset in Joint European Torus (JET) machine. The use of the soft computing techniqu is suggested by the very nature of the variables involved andby the consideration that a single time series of a physical variable is hardly representative of the whole kind of disruptions experimentally observed.