In the recent past, the e-commerce market, supported by digital infrastructures and the smartphones diffusion, has changed consumers' purchasing strategies. The paradigm of onmichannel requires how communication and flexibility to be the core for business models; and materialization, into the shopping experiences, represents only the last step. Sectors such as tourism, education and fashion due to their nature adapted their business rapidly; on the contrary, the food grocery, till today has a marginal role and in countries like Italy and Spain it still represents a turnover of less than 3% of the sector. It is clear that a study of the phenomenon, in this phase, can be decisive in anticipating future trends and adapting the urban environment to new needs. Although e-grocery has been focued by various authors from different disciplines, few examples have, aleady, investigated the phenomenon using discrete choice models. Therefore, in this research, we have chosen to investigate decision-makers behaviours using hypothetical scenarios, such as a flexible investigation strategy, capable of intercepting their intentions and prospects. Starting, therefore, from the potential demand for a set of consumers, both form Italy and Spain, it was possible to identify different subgroups and classes of behaviour and assess what implications concerned by choices in terms of mobility, planning and last-mile distribution. Along with the different investigation phases, an efficient experiment was generated using a proper set of calibrated variables. In order to obtain a clearer image of the decision-making process, the study of quantitative variables (such as price, service costs, purchase and waiting times, etc.) was strength by a survey that took into account factors such services "quality" and "reliability" as well as purchase nature. The behaviour analysis was analyzed employing different models, evaluating different descriptors such as the relative importance and the willingness to pay for groups and classes. It emerged how the possibility to save money and time too, drives consumers intentions to adopt e-grocery services. Previous experience and the purchase nature strongly influence the modal choices and attitudes; more generally, consumers who often buy online possess different purchase habits. In order to contribute practically and scientifically to overcome the traditional limits of discrete choice models, we also chose: to make use of "latent" variables and develop a hybrid model, whose experimental framework included the value for factors such as "convenience; safety and reliability". Despite the limited availability of data, it was possible to ascertain how these variables are significant into the decision process and neglecting them, in the past, resulted into overestimating the ability for the socio-economic and demographics to be faithful descriptors of the user choices. Moreover, collected data show how the e-grocery will produce a reduction in the number of trips and kilometres travelled on the network by consumers, as well as a favourable modal choice balance. There is a keen interest in click & collect services, the same providers that push in this direction in order to reduce shipping costs. Only in the case of particularly fragmented demand and focused on rapid shipping services will the modal choices produce an additional load on urban road infrastructures. For a more detailed study, however, please refer to future developments focused on distribution. In the overall picture, a strong signal emerges towards the planner that should, in our opinion, welcome the possibility of providing suitable proximity centres or refrigerated parcel lockers at the nodal points of the network in order to optimize the logistics complex.

Da inizio secolo, il mercato dell'e-commerce, supportato dalle infrastrutture digitali e la diffusione degli smartphone, ha modificando le strategie di acquisto dei consumatori. Il paradigma della onmicanalità fa sì che comunicazione e flessibilità siano al centro del modello proposto, facendo dello shopping in un’esperienza dove la materializzazione, rappresenta solo l’ultimo passaggio. Settori quali il turismo, l'istruzione e la moda per loro natura si sono adattati rapidamente; al contrario il grocery alimentare, al netto dei progressi nell’ultimo lustro, in paesi come Italia e Spagna rappresenta ancora un volume di affari inferiore al 3% del comparto. Risulta, evidente come uno studio del fenomeno, in tale fase, possa essere risolutivo per anticipare il trend ed adattare per tempo l'ambiente urbano alle nuove esigenze. Nonostante l’e-grocery sia oggetto di differenti studi di letteratura, scarsi sono gli esempi che hanno investigato il fenomeno ricorrendo ai modelli di scelta discreta. Pertanto, nella presente ricerca si è scelto di investigare il comportamento dei decisori servendosi di scenari ipotetici, come strategia d’indagine flessibile, capace di intercettarne intenzioni e prospettive future. Partendo dunque dalla domanda potenziale per un insieme di consumatori, Italiani e spagnoli, è stato possibile individuare diversi sottogruppi e classi di comportamento e valutare quali implicazioni tali scelte potranno produrre in termini di mobilità, pianificazione e distribuzione nell’ultimo miglio. Un esperimento di tipo efficiente è stato generato avvalendosi di un set di variabili opportunamente selezionate e calibrate lungo le diverse fasi d’indagine. Al fine di ottenere un’immagine più chiara del processo decisionale, lo studio delle variabili quantitative (quali prezzo, costi di servizio, tempi di acquisto e di attesa, ecc.) è stata affiancato da un’indagine che tenesse conto di fattori quali la qualità ed affidabilità dei servizi nonché la natura della merce. L’analisi del comportamento è stata analizzata per mezzo di differenti modelli, valutando differenti descrittori quali l’importanza relativa e la willingness to pay per gruppi e classi. È emerso come la possibilità di poter risparmiare le risorse economiche, monetarie e temporali, guidi le scelte di molti consumatori verso l’e-grocery. L’esperienza pregressa e la natura dell’acquisto influenzano fortemente le scelte modali e l’attitudine verso i servizi; più in generale il ricorso all’online modifichi il comportamento dell’utente. Per contribuire in maniera pratica e scientifica a superare i limiti tradizionali dei modelli di scelta discreta, si è inoltre scelto: di avvalersi di variabili “latenti” e sviluppare un modello ibrido, il cui framework sperimentale comprendesse il valore assunto da fattori quali: convenienza; sicurezza ed affidabilità. Nonostante la limitata disponibilità di dati, è stato possibile accertare come tali variabili assumano grande rilevanza all’interno delle decisioni ed il fatto di averle trascurate, in passato, ha fatto sì che sia stata sopravvalutata la capacità delle variabili socio economiche di essere fedeli descrittori delle scelte degli utenti. Inoltre per i dati in nostro possesso, l’e-grocery produrrà da parte dei consumatori una riduzione del numero di viaggi e dei chilometri percorsi su rete, nonché un saldo modale favorevole. Emerge un forte interesse verso i servizi di click&collect, gli stessi providers che spingono in tale direzione così da abbattere i costi legati alle spedizioni. Solo nell’ipotesi di domanda particolarmente frammentata ed incentrata su servizi di spedizione rapidi le scelte modali produrranno un ulteriore carico sulle infrastrutture viarie urbane. Per uno studio più approfondito, si comunque rimanda a futuri sviluppi incentrati sulla distribuzione. Nel quadro complessivo emerge un segnale forte nei confronti del pianificatore che dovrebbe, a nostro avviso, accogliere favorevolmente la possibilità prevedere opportuni centri di prossimità o dei parcel locker refrigerati nei punti nodali della rete così da ottimizzare il complesso della logistica.

Discrete choice models assessing attitudes effects on decisions: an exploratory modelling approach, based on empirical choice observations, to analyse households intentions / Belcore, Orlando Marco. - (2020 May 13).

Discrete choice models assessing attitudes effects on decisions: an exploratory modelling approach, based on empirical choice observations, to analyse households intentions

Belcore Orlando Marco
2020-05-13

Abstract

In the recent past, the e-commerce market, supported by digital infrastructures and the smartphones diffusion, has changed consumers' purchasing strategies. The paradigm of onmichannel requires how communication and flexibility to be the core for business models; and materialization, into the shopping experiences, represents only the last step. Sectors such as tourism, education and fashion due to their nature adapted their business rapidly; on the contrary, the food grocery, till today has a marginal role and in countries like Italy and Spain it still represents a turnover of less than 3% of the sector. It is clear that a study of the phenomenon, in this phase, can be decisive in anticipating future trends and adapting the urban environment to new needs. Although e-grocery has been focued by various authors from different disciplines, few examples have, aleady, investigated the phenomenon using discrete choice models. Therefore, in this research, we have chosen to investigate decision-makers behaviours using hypothetical scenarios, such as a flexible investigation strategy, capable of intercepting their intentions and prospects. Starting, therefore, from the potential demand for a set of consumers, both form Italy and Spain, it was possible to identify different subgroups and classes of behaviour and assess what implications concerned by choices in terms of mobility, planning and last-mile distribution. Along with the different investigation phases, an efficient experiment was generated using a proper set of calibrated variables. In order to obtain a clearer image of the decision-making process, the study of quantitative variables (such as price, service costs, purchase and waiting times, etc.) was strength by a survey that took into account factors such services "quality" and "reliability" as well as purchase nature. The behaviour analysis was analyzed employing different models, evaluating different descriptors such as the relative importance and the willingness to pay for groups and classes. It emerged how the possibility to save money and time too, drives consumers intentions to adopt e-grocery services. Previous experience and the purchase nature strongly influence the modal choices and attitudes; more generally, consumers who often buy online possess different purchase habits. In order to contribute practically and scientifically to overcome the traditional limits of discrete choice models, we also chose: to make use of "latent" variables and develop a hybrid model, whose experimental framework included the value for factors such as "convenience; safety and reliability". Despite the limited availability of data, it was possible to ascertain how these variables are significant into the decision process and neglecting them, in the past, resulted into overestimating the ability for the socio-economic and demographics to be faithful descriptors of the user choices. Moreover, collected data show how the e-grocery will produce a reduction in the number of trips and kilometres travelled on the network by consumers, as well as a favourable modal choice balance. There is a keen interest in click & collect services, the same providers that push in this direction in order to reduce shipping costs. Only in the case of particularly fragmented demand and focused on rapid shipping services will the modal choices produce an additional load on urban road infrastructures. For a more detailed study, however, please refer to future developments focused on distribution. In the overall picture, a strong signal emerges towards the planner that should, in our opinion, welcome the possibility of providing suitable proximity centres or refrigerated parcel lockers at the nodal points of the network in order to optimize the logistics complex.
13-mag-2020
ARENA, Felice
Doctoral Thesis
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12318/63665
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