Dynamic approaches to demand model in evacuation conditions

Simulation of evacuation demand in some emergency conditions requires the use of dynamic models, among which sequential dynamic discrete choice models represent a special class. Sequential dynamic discrete choice models are based on discrete choice model theory and on sequential analysis, a statistical approach which allows one to analyze the given dynamic phenomenon in the sample database and to highlight, if it exists, a specific lag. This work is subdivided into two main parts. In the first part we propose an analysis of evacuation conditions requiring a dynamic approach and a state of the art of literature models which deal with these. In the second part we propose a brief description of sequential analysis and we introduce a sequential dynamic discrete choice model to simulate evacuation conditions.