Fuzzy-Neural Identification and Forecasting Techniques to Process Experimental Urban Air Pollution Data

This paper focuses on the processing of experimentally measured pollution data. Measuring locally both air quality parameters and atmospheric data can show how complex can be their interrelations and how they change spatially. Furthermore, apart from physical and biochemical dependencies, two important aspects need to be incorporated in the model, traffic data and topographic information, like presence and configuration of buildings and roads. Since estimating the evolution of pollutant in the urban air can have significant economic impact already on a short term basis as well as relevant consequences on public health on a medium-long term scale, various interdisciplinary researches are under way on this subject. In this work, we pursue two goals. The first one is to derive a representative model of the multivariate relationships that should be able to reproduce local interactions; the second goal of the paper is to predict, when possible, the short term evolution of pollutants in order to prevent the onset of above threshold levels of pollutants that can be dangerous to humans. The threshold levels of interest are fixed by both EU recommendations and regional regulations; As a by-product of the research, we could derive some directives to be supplied to local authorities to properly organize car traffic in advance based on the estimated parameters. The case study here proposed is that of Villa San Giovanni, a small town at the tip of Italy, located just in front of Sicily, on the Messina Strait. This is a significant case, since the city is affected by the heavy traffic directed (and coming from) Sicily. The main results here reported include the short time prediction of the concentration of hydrocarbons (HC) in the local air, the comparison between different methods based on fuzzy neural systems, and the proposal of local models of non-linear interactions among traffic, atmospheric and pollution data. Additionally, comments on a longer horizon forecast are given.